Here are mainly lots of pictures and a few random notes I wrote, with very little editing.
Global Economic Outlook
Will New Economy productivity growth happen elsewhere globally, like it has in the US? Some indications it will.
There are risks to the US in all this. The US won't slip in an absolute sense, but the rest of the world will catch up. Europe sees what happened in the US and says we want it, too. They understand the New Economy (information technologies, venture capital investment, etc.) works. Will lead to deregulation. But Europe is 5 years behind, Japan 7, in structural reform.
Not just the New Economy but also new management techniques, including in government (keeping costs under control). Hasn't happened in other countries, e.g., things like asking "does a bridge or road enhance economic activity after the construction phase?".
Technology buying is more structural now, not just building up, but also now part of how companies work normally in their normal course of business.
E-Business Revolution
A thing I remember most is that we will look not to the values of stocks of a country but to the prices of labor. Skills will be up for auction. They will flow from country to country. This is a real issue. Companies will have to fight over talent so many will have to outsource it.
When it comes to technology, kids today wonder what the debate is all about -- they just assume it.
Employees care more about being trained than other issues. They want to know they will be current. It's learning how to find out, not training, since training assumes the trainer knows it. Challenge to create lifelong learning.
Voice technology, coming quickly to wireless phones, will be important -- it already is coming in Japan and the Nordic countries.
Moving from R&D to A&D (acquire and develop), and global product launches. Technology lag around the world is very little, thanks to technology. "Bright ideas travel around the world". A country's education and infrastructure matter -- if good, no lag.
The New Leadership: Skills of the Future
James Walsh, Chairman & Co-CEO Technology Holdings, LLC: Since 1960 the world population doubled, very little of it was in Silicon Valley.
Use of information is power, not just what Clinton said that information is power.
John S. Chalsty, Chairman DLJ: Management vs. leadership, unfortunately we give degrees in management, not leadership. Ones who are both good managers and leaders are heroes. People will become comfortable with technology, at least as much as kids are.
Hon. Jerry M. Hultin, Undersecretary of the Navy: Today, a different relationship with leaders. Individuals matter more. Solutions not piece parts. Alignment not authority. Equality of wealth is cheaper to defend.
Anticipating Financial Crises
Prime Minister of Australia, Minister of Foreign Affair of Indonesia, President Banco Central Do Brazil, President Federal Reserve Bank of New York, and Chairman of Sullivan & Cromwell (l. to r.)
Prime Minister of Australia: "Can't avoid judgments of financial markets", World getting better at handling financial crises. Globalization is blamed for ills, but because of it, we can recover faster from problems.
Chairman Sullivan & Cromwell: Talked about the transparency of banks, knowing what's going on. Made me think about Open source vs. transparency of banks, etc.
President, Fed Reserve NY: Productivity -> Growth. Good management, government. Flexible labor view of world culture, immigrants in countries like US and Australia had that culture. "Marketplace will allocate resources better than bureaucrats, and I'm a bureaucrat."
President, Banco Central Do Brazil: Thinks good government (well managed) helped productivity, not just technology.
Minister of Foreign Affairs, Republic of Indonesia: We're strengthening our country, so invest in us.
Dinner in honor of the Foreign Minister of Turkey
(I didn't take notes, unfortunately.)
New Directions in World Trade Post-Seattle
Jagdish Bhagwati Prof. Columbia University: Need to use other than trade for issues like child labor. Another -- politicians are a problem. Problems of extra agendas along with trade. GATT (weak) vs. WTO (strong) for dispute resolution. Need to be more reasonable ("lighten up").
Guy De Jonquieres, The Financial Times: No new WTO round. Things going well. Protection no longer argued for. Trade involves more "petty" disputes. Trade never more important, part of everything, but not treated that way. "Not just about tariffs."
Globalization Success Stories
NY Governor Pataki, Quebec Premier Bouchard
Moderator: "Can prosper without losing one's soul", "Globalization is a fact of life"
Honorable Lucien Bouchard, Premier of Quebec: "Our identity is an economic asset". Going to teaching 3rd language, Spanish. Very proud Wired ranked Montreal #12 among 40 hot spots in New Economy. Touts education, math scores. "R&D friendly".
Hon. George E. Pataki, Governor of New York: NAFTA meant discipline, in government. Since NAFTA - 55% increase in trade. Trade -> "Synergy improves lives of everyone" -- not zero sum. Silicon Alley: zoning, electricity cost, remove tax of Internet services and hosting, etc. -- used to have telephone tax on Internet.
Luncheon Address: President of the Government of Spain
H.E. Jose Maria Aznar Lopez, President of the Government of Spain:
Spain -> Link to history of New World as a major development (last globalization) so know about changes, want to get back to that. Likes how its language is getting more popular. 400M speak - heritage not just Spain, belongs to anybody who speaks it. Not looking back to past. Some are fearful of change vs. commitment to openness, reform, modernization (Spain is the latter...). Not sure if there is a New Economy or just old rules and just applying those sound economic principles. New technology is not curbed in Europe by lack of excellence but rather by political things. The problem is not that globalization will not stop but rather that it might halt. They have big investments in Latin America.
Globalization and Managing the New Economy
Hon. Richard Gardner, Advisor to Al Gore: Poverty, transnational diseases, family planning, environment, are all part of national security. How to have those marginalized participate. Government must be active in education.
John Macon (sp?), advisor to G. W. Bush (from U of Chicago): Sees New Economy only in US, inexplicable. More trade is better than no trade because of working conditions, according to workers.
